The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) projected the Thai economy in 2025 to expand in the range of 2.3 – 3.3 percent (with the midpoint projection of 2.8 percent).
Key supporting factors include the increase in government consumption and investment; the growth of domestic private demand; the continual recovery of tourism sector; and the continual expansion of export. Private consumption and investment are expected to increase by 3.0 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively.
Export value of goods in US dollar term is expected to grow by 2.6 percent. Headline inflation is estimated to be in the range of 0.3 – 1.3 percent and the current account is projected to record a surplus of 2.6 percent of GDP.
Secretary General to the NESDB Danucha Pichayanan said key growth components included total consumption while private consumption expenditure is expected to increase by 3.0 percent, continuing from a growth of 4.8 percent in 2024. This growth is supported by favorable labor market conditions, low inflationary pressure, and rising income levels in both the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors.
Government consumption expenditure is projected to grow by 2.1 percent, continuing from a 1.7-percent expansion in 2024. This was in accordance with an increase in the current budget framework under the FY2025 annual budget and the FY2025 carry-over budget.
Private investment is estimated to increase by 2.8 percent
Total investment is expected to increase by 3.9 percent, accelerating from a 0.2- percent in 2024. Private investment is estimated to increase by 2.8 percent, improving from a 0.5-percent contraction in 2024. This was in accordance with the recovery of manufacturing productions and exports, supported by the strong growth in investment promotion activities.
Public investment is anticipated to drop by 6.5 percent, accelerating from a 2.4-percent increase in 2024. This was in accordance with an increase in the capital budget framework under the FY2025 annual budget and the FY2025 carry-over budget by 27.5 percent and 73.8 percent, respectively.
Export value of goods in US dollar term is anticipated to increase by 2.6 percent, continuing from a 3.8 -percent increase in 2024, in line with the continual recovery of global trade volume. Together with the improving outlook of services exports, it is expected that the export quantity of goods and services will continue to increase by 4.2 percent, compared with a 6.1-percent in 2024.
Mr Danucha said economic management for 2025 should prioritize on driving export to obtain stronger expansion while preparing to mitigate the possible impacts of escalating trade barrier measures by promoting the export of high-potential and globally demanded products, such as health-related and eco-friendly products, while maintaining momentum in key export categories with strong potential growth, including processed food and agricultural products, electronics, and telecommunications equipment.
Efforts should focus on expanding exports to high-growth and emerging markets, particularly in Middle East, South Asia, and ASEAN, while prioritizing the resolution of cross border trade issues to strengthen connectivity with CLMV countries.
Closely monitoring the implementation of trade barriers
Closely monitoring and evaluating the implementation of trade barriers from the US that could impact Thailand’s exports, particularly products likely to be affected in order to prepare support measures for businesses, especially SMEs, that may face direct or indirect consequences. Additionally, promoting the export of products anticipated to benefit from trade barriers should be prioritized.
Adhering to global trade frameworks and the regulations and guidelines of trading partner countries, while promoting the increased utilization of tariff benefits under existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), along with accelerating negotiations for ongoing FTAs, conducting studies to initiate negotiations with new key trading partners, and maximizing the benefits of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Enhancing the competitiveness of export-oriented production by boosting productivity through innovation and cutting edgetechnology to support high-value goods, enabling to compete in the key markets and meet with the standards of major importers, thereby avoiding price-based competition.
In addition, businesses experiencing declining global demand or persistently low production utilization rates should review and adjust their production and export strategies accordingly; and (5) Encouraging the business sector to mitigate risks from exchange rate fluctuations, while facilitating and reducing export-related costs for businesses.
Protected the manufacturing sector from dumping and unfair trade
The agency also proposed to protected the manufacturing sector from dumping and unfair trade practices by improving the quality inspection process of imported products to ensure greater rigor and thoroughness. This includes expediting the issuance of product standard protocols to cover imported products including fostering collaboration to establish agreements on the mutual recognition of international standards and increasing penalties for those importing substandard products.
Improving the regulation and inspection of foreign digital platform businesses by expediting the requirement for foreign online operators to register as legal entities and establish offices in Thailand, enabling the government to supervise their operations.
Implementing a strict inspection and monitoring of market dumping and unfair trade measures from major exporting countries and facilitating business operators in accessing anti-dumping, countervailing-duty, and anti-circumvention (AD/CVD/AC) measures; and strengthening enforcement against illegal importation, tax evasion, or exploitation of legal loopholes to benefit their businesses, along with enhancing Thai entrepreneurs and product standards.
Stimulating private investment
Stimulating private investment by enhancing foreign investor confidence by leveraging the strengths of being a regional hub and advanced infrastructure connectivity to attract foreign direct investment, particularly by encouraging businesses affected by trade barriers to relocate their investment bases to Thailand.
Expediting the implementation of projects with investment promotion certificates during 2022 – 2024 to initiate actual investments, driving the expansion of key potential manufacturing and service sectors, accelerating infrastructure investment projects and the development of specialized economic zones in accordance with the established plans.
Developing a conducive ecosystem for targeted industries and services to invest in Thailand, especially reducing barriers in related procedures, regulations, and laws, addressing labor shortages in the manufacturing sector, and enhancing labor productivity to brace for new targeted industries and services; and boosting productivity through innovation and cutting-edge technology to promote high-value goods production that transcend price competition and meet the standards of major importers.
Assisting farmers in adapting their agricultural production
Assisting farmers in adapting their agricultural production by expediting the assessment of damages to ensure timely delivery relief. This includes providing compensation and accelerating recovery effort for farmers affected by flood.
Preparing for the impacts of climate volatility, particularly during the La Niña phenomenon, which may impact the growth of the agricultural sector, by prioritizing on water resource management, enhancing infrastructure efficiency and improving warning systems to ensure readiness for rapid climate changes and various disasters.
Driving the continued growth of agricultural and processed agricultural product exports to elevate domestic agricultural prices, particularly in situations where production is expected to increase.
Enhancing knowledge and promoting the cultivation of crops and production methods suited to local conditions. This includes adopting advanced technologies in production, marketing, and management.
Providing support to SMEs
Providing support to SMEs experiencing financial difficulties due to a continuous decline in credit quality by prioritizing income generation and enhancing their production capacity and competitiveness. In addition, leveraging technological advancements to improve business efficiency facilitating better access to funding sources, while expediting the implementation of debt restructuring measures for households and businesses, with a particular focus on vulnerable borrowers with low credit limits, who represent a significant proportion of non-performing loans.
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