The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) maintained 2.5% of the economic projection this year.
Secretary general to the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) Danucha Pichayanan the Thai economy in 2024 is project to expand in the range of 2.3 – 2.8 % (with the midpoint projection of 2.5 %).
Key supporting factors include: (1) the continual recovery of tourism sector; (2) the favorable growth of domestic private consumption; (3) the high momentum from government consumption and public investment; and (4) the gradual return to an expansion of goods exports in line with the global trade recovery.
He said private consumption and investment are expect to increase by 4.5 % and 0.3 %, respectively. Export value of goods in US dollar term is expect to grow by 2.0 %. Headline inflation is estimat to be in the range of 0.4 – 0.9 % and the current account is project to record a surplus of 2.3 % of GDP. Key growth components are as follows:
Total consumption:
(1) Private consumption expenditure is expect to increase by 4.5 %, continuing from a strong growth of 7.1 % in 2023 and unchanged from the previous estimation.
(2) Government consumption expenditure is project to grow by 1.7 %, improving from a 4.6-percent contraction in 2023 and an equivalent from the previous estimation. This was in accordance with an increase in the current budget framework under the FY2024 and FY2025 annual budget by 7.3 % and 4.7 %, respectively.
Total investment is expect to increase by 0.1 %, slowing down from a 1.2 % in 2023.
(1) Private investment is estimate to increase by 0.3 percent, a downward revision from a 3.2 % in the previous estimation and slowing down from a 3.2 % growth in 2023. This was in accordance with the decline in investment in the second quarter by 6.8 %, contributing to a 0.9 % contraction during the first half of the year.
(2) Public investment is anticipat to drop by 0.7 %, compared with a 1.8 % decrease in the previous estimation. This was in accordance with the higher-than-expected disbursement rate of the State-Owned Enterprises’ budget.
Export value of goods in US dollar term is anticipated to increase by 2 %, compared with a 1.5 % contraction in 2023, and unchanged from the previous estimation. Together with the better-than-expected outlook of services exports due to the upward revision of revenue from inbound tourists, it is expected that the export quantity of goods and services will continue to increase by 4.9 %, accelerating from 2.1 % in 2023 and upwardly revised from a 4.7 % in previous estimation.
Mr Danucha said the economic management for the remainder of 2024 should prioritize on;
1) maintaining domestic economic and political stability,
2) stimulating private investment.
3) Monitoring and addressing unfair trade practices by (1) implementing a strict inspection and monitoring market dumping and unfair trade measures.
4) Ensuring adequate liquidity for the business sector, especially providing access to formal credit for high-potential SMEs experiencing financial difficulties.
5) Expediting budget disbursement to enable government expenditure to support the economy promptly
6) Preparing for the impacts of climate change
7) Expediting efforts to address air pollution issues (PM2.5) and preparing key ecosystem to support tourism.
8) Preparing for mitigating the impacts as well as seizing opportunities arising from global economic and trade volatility.
The National Economic and Social Development Council
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